Sealed Product Guide
Best Pokemon Set to Open: Expected Value Guide for Booster Boxes & Packs
Should you rip that booster box or keep it sealed? The answer lies in Expected Value (EV) — a mathematical approach to understanding what you're likely to pull from any Pokemon TCG product. This guide explains how EV works, which sets currently offer the best value, and how to make data-driven decisions about opening sealed product.
Quick Answer: What is the Best Pokemon Set to Open?
The "best" set depends on your goals. For pure expected value (getting the most card value per dollar spent), sets with high-value chase cards and favorable pull rates rank highest. As of early 2025, sets like Prismatic Evolutions, Surging Sparks, and 151 often show strong EV ratios.
How to calculate EV: Multiply each card's market value by its pull rate, then sum all values. Compare this total to the box cost. If EV exceeds cost, opening is mathematically favorable.
Important caveat: EV is an average over many openings. Individual boxes can vary wildly — you might pull nothing or hit multiple chase cards. EV tells you what to expect on average, not what any single box will contain.
Pro Tip: Use Double Holo's EV Analysis tool to see real-time expected values for every Pokemon set, updated with current market prices.
What is Expected Value (EV)?
Expected Value (EV) is a statistical concept that represents the average outcome you'd expect over many repeated trials. In Pokemon TCG terms, it's the average total value of cards you'd pull if you opened hundreds of booster boxes of the same set.
Simple Example
Imagine a set where the only valuable card is a $100 chase card with a 1-in-50 pack pull rate. A booster box has 36 packs.
EV per box = (36 packs × 1/50 chance × $100) = $72
If the booster box costs $90, the EV suggests you'll lose ~$18 on average. If it costs $60, you'd gain ~$12 on average.
Of course, real sets have dozens of valuable cards at different rarities, making the calculation more complex. But the principle remains: EV tells you whether opening is mathematically +EV (profitable on average) or -EV (losing on average).
Key Insight
Most sealed Pokemon product is -EV to open. The Pokemon Company designs products to be profitable for them, which means the average opener loses money. Finding +EV opportunities requires careful analysis of market prices and pull rates.
How is Booster Box EV Calculated?
Calculating booster box EV requires three pieces of data for every card in the set:
- 1Current Market Value
What each card sells for on the secondary market (eBay sold listings, TCGPlayer, Double Holo, etc.)
- 2Pull Rate
The probability of pulling each card from a single pack (often expressed as 1-in-X packs)
- 3Packs per Box
Standard booster boxes have 36 packs; some products vary (ETBs have 9, booster bundles have 6, etc.)
The EV Formula
Box EV = Sum of (Card Value × Pull Rate × Packs per Box) for all cards
Or more formally: EV = Σ (Vi × Pi × N) where V = value, P = probability, N = number of packs
Worked Example: Simplified Set
Let's calculate EV for a hypothetical set with just 4 valuable cards:
| Card | Value | Pull Rate | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Card SAR | $200 | 1/288 packs | $25.00 |
| Alt Art Rare | $80 | 1/72 packs | $40.00 |
| Full Art Trainer | $25 | 1/36 packs | $25.00 |
| Holo Rare (avg) | $2 | 1/3 packs | $24.00 |
| Total Box EV (36 packs) | $114.00 | ||
If this booster box costs $100, it's +$14 EV (profitable on average).
If it costs $130, it's -$16 EV (losing on average).
Why Manual Calculation is Impractical
Real Pokemon sets have 100-200+ cards across many rarity tiers. Pull rates vary by rarity and sometimes by print run. Market prices change daily. Calculating EV manually for every set is a full-time job — which is exactly why we built an automated tool.
Understanding Pull Rates
Pull rates are the probability of finding a specific card (or rarity tier) in a booster pack. The Pokemon Company doesn't publish official rates, so the community relies on large-scale opening data to estimate them.
Typical Modern Set Pull Rates (Approximate)
Note: Rates vary significantly between sets and product types. Japanese sets have different rates than English.
Why Pull Rates Matter for EV
A $500 chase card with a 1-in-1000 pull rate contributes less to box EV than a $50 card with a 1-in-50 rate:
$500 Card @ 1/1000
EV contribution per box:
$18.00
(36 × 1/1000 × $500)
$50 Card @ 1/50
EV contribution per box:
$36.00
(36 × 1/50 × $50)
The "Mid-Tier" Secret
Sets with valuable mid-tier cards (Full Arts, regular Art Rares) often have better EV than sets with one extremely expensive chase card. Consistent $20-50 pulls add up faster than chasing a single $300 card you'll rarely hit.
Double Holo's EV Analysis Tool
Double Holo Premium includes a comprehensive EV Analysis tool that calculates expected value for every Pokemon TCG set in real-time.
What the EV Analysis Tool Provides
- ✓Real-time EV calculations — Updated with current market prices, not stale data
- ✓Set-by-set comparison — See which sets currently offer the best value
- ✓Card-level breakdown — See exactly which cards contribute most to EV
- ✓Multiple product types — Booster boxes, ETBs, booster bundles, and more
- ✓Historical EV trends — Track how set values change over time
- ✓Break-even analysis — Know exactly what box price makes a set +EV
Example: Using EV Analysis to Decide
You find a Surging Sparks booster box for $95. Is it worth opening?
The EV Analysis tool shows:
• Current Box EV: $108.50
• Your cost: $95.00
• Expected profit: +$13.50 per box
• Break-even price: $108.50
At $95, this box is +EV. If the same box was $120, it would be -EV.
Why Real-Time Data Matters
Pokemon card prices are volatile. A set that was +EV last week might be -EV today if chase card prices dropped. Static EV calculators using old data can lead to bad decisions. Double Holo's tool updates continuously with live market data.
Best Sets to Open in 2025
Set EVs change constantly with market conditions. Here's what generally makes a set worth opening, plus sets that have historically shown strong value:
Characteristics of High-EV Sets
- ✓Multiple chase cards — Sets with 3-5+ cards worth $50+ spread risk
- ✓Strong mid-tier — Full Arts and Alt Arts in the $15-40 range add consistent value
- ✓Popular Pokemon — Sets featuring Charizard, Pikachu, Umbreon, Mewtwo tend to hold value
- ✓Limited availability — Hard-to-find sets often have inflated card values
- ✓Box prices below MSRP — Sales and promotions create +EV windows
Notable Sets (Check Current EV Before Buying)
Prismatic Evolutions
The Eeveelution-focused set has extremely high demand and multiple chase cards. Limited allocation has kept card values elevated. Often +EV at MSRP, strongly +EV at any discount.
Key cards: Umbreon ex SAR, Sylveon ex SAR, Eevee illustration rares
Surging Sparks
Strong chase cards including Pikachu ex SAR. Good mid-tier with multiple playable cards. Frequently goes on sale, creating +EV opportunities.
Key cards: Pikachu ex SAR, Full Art supporters, playable ex cards
Pokemon 151
Original 151 Pokemon nostalgia drives demand. Multiple Charizard variants keep values high. Note: Japanese 151 has different (often better) pull rates than English.
Key cards: Charizard ex SAR, Mew ex SAR, Full Art starters
Obsidian Flames
Charizard ex and Tyranitar ex drive value. Often discounted, creating +EV windows. Good for bulk opening due to consistent mid-tier.
Key cards: Charizard ex SAR, Tyranitar ex SAR, Revavroom ex
Important: Always Check Current EV
These assessments can become outdated quickly. A set that was +EV when this article was written might be -EV by the time you read it. Always check real-time EV data before making purchase decisions.
When to Open vs Hold Sealed
Even if a box is +EV to open, holding it sealed might be the better play. Here's how to think about the decision:
Open When...
- ✓Box is significantly +EV (15%+ above cost)
- ✓You got product well below market price
- ✓Card prices are at local highs
- ✓Set is heavily printed (won't appreciate sealed)
- ✓You need the cards for playing/collecting
Hold Sealed When...
- ✓Box is -EV or barely +EV
- ✓Set has limited print run
- ✓Sealed prices are rising faster than card prices
- ✓You bought at MSRP during release
- ✓Long-term investment is your goal
The Sealed Premium Factor
Sealed product often appreciates over time as supply decreases. A box that's -EV to open today might be worth 2-3x its current price in 5 years, sealed. However, this requires patience, storage space, and accepting the opportunity cost of tied-up capital.
Limitations of EV Analysis
EV is a powerful tool, but it's not perfect. Understanding its limitations helps you use it correctly:
1. Variance is Real
EV is an average over many boxes. Your individual box might contain nothing valuable, or it might have 3 chase cards. A box with $100 EV doesn't mean you'll get $100 — it means that's the average across thousands of boxes.
2. Selling Costs Money
EV calculations use market prices, but selling cards incurs fees (eBay 13%, TCGPlayer 10-15%, etc.) and requires time. Your realized value will be 10-20% less than the EV suggests unless you're selling on low-fee platforms like Double Holo.
3. Bulk Has (Almost) No Value
Most EV calculations ignore commons, uncommons, and low-value rares. If you're not selling bulk, your effective EV is just the valuable hits. If you ARE selling bulk, add $5-15 per box to your EV.
4. Pull Rate Estimates Aren't Perfect
Community-sourced pull rates have margin of error. Early in a set's life, rates are especially uncertain. Manufacturing variations can also cause pull rate differences between print runs.
5. Prices Move Fast
By the time you open, sort, list, and sell your pulls, prices may have changed. If a chase card tanks 20% while your listing sits unsold, your actual return is worse than the EV suggested.
Bottom Line
Use EV as a guide, not a guarantee. Opening +EV product improves your odds of profiting, but doesn't eliminate risk. Never open more than you can afford to lose.
Maximizing Value When Opening
If you decide to open sealed product, here's how to maximize your returns:
1. Buy Below Market
Every dollar saved on box cost is a dollar added to profit. Hunt sales, use cashback, buy during promotions. The difference between $95 and $110 per box is $15 per box in extra margin.
2. Sell Hits Quickly
Card prices typically decline after initial release hype. Sell your valuable pulls within the first few weeks while demand is highest. Don't wait for prices to "go back up" — they often don't.
3. Use Low-Fee Platforms
eBay's 13%+ fees eat into profits significantly. Platforms like Double Holo (4.9% seller fee) let you keep more of your sales.
4. Handle Cards Properly
A scratched chase card is worth far less than a mint one. Open on a clean surface, sleeve valuable pulls immediately, and consider penny sleeves + toploaders for anything worth $10+.
5. Don't Ignore Bulk
Selling bulk to buylist vendors adds $5-15 per box. It's tedious, but over 10 boxes, that's $50-150 extra. Some vendors also buy reverse holos, energy, and code cards.
6. Track Your Results
Keep a spreadsheet of your openings — box cost, hits, sale prices, net profit. This data helps you identify which sets and products actually perform best for YOUR selling style.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is opening Pokemon cards profitable?
It can be, but most sealed product is -EV (negative expected value) to open. Profitability requires finding +EV opportunities through sales, discounts, or sets with unusually high card values relative to box cost. On average, opening Pokemon cards loses money — the profitable openers are strategic about what and when they open.
What does +EV and -EV mean?
+EV (positive expected value) means you'll profit on average. If a box costs $100 and has $120 EV, it's +$20 EV. -EV (negative expected value) means you'll lose on average. If that same box costs $140, it's -$20 EV. These are averages over many openings, not guarantees for any single box.
How do I find booster box EV?
You can calculate it manually using card prices and pull rates, but this is extremely time-consuming. Tools like Double Holo's EV Analysis calculate it automatically using real-time market data, saving hours of research.
Are Japanese boxes better EV than English?
It depends on the set. Japanese boxes often have better pull rates and different card pools. However, Japanese cards have a smaller buyer market in Western countries, which can make them harder to sell. Compare EV for both versions before deciding.
Should I open ETBs or booster boxes?
Booster boxes typically offer better EV per pack because you get more packs per dollar. ETBs include accessories (sleeves, dice, box) that don't contribute to card EV. However, ETBs can appreciate more as sealed collectibles. For pure opening value, booster boxes usually win.
When is the best time to open a new set?
Card prices are typically highest in the first 1-2 weeks after release, then decline as more product is opened. If you're opening to sell, early is usually better. However, box prices are also highest at release. The sweet spot is often getting boxes at MSRP on release day when card prices are inflated.
Final Thoughts
Finding the "best" Pokemon set to open isn't about chasing the set with the biggest chase card — it's about understanding Expected Value and making data-driven decisions. A modest set with consistent mid-tier hits often beats a hyped set with one lottery card.
The collectors and resellers who profit from opening product share a few habits:
- ✓They check EV before buying, not after
- ✓They buy product below market price whenever possible
- ✓They sell hits quickly while prices are high
- ✓They use low-fee platforms to maximize margins
- ✓They track their results and adjust strategy accordingly
Whether you're opening for fun or profit, understanding EV helps you make smarter choices about which sealed products deserve your money.
Find the Best Sets to Open
Double Holo Premium includes real-time EV Analysis for every Pokemon TCG set. See exactly which products are +EV right now, with card-level breakdowns and historical trends.