Double Holo
The Journal
Daily Market Brief
Sep 17, 2026No. 1706 min read

Vintage singles keep running while packs stay weak

Old promos and low-supply cards climbed again, but sealed EV is still ugly

Today's market still looks split, just like yesterday, and the gap is getting wider. Scarce singles, especially oddball vintage cards, Japanese Vs pieces, and a few thin-supply modern GX cards, kept pushing higher over the last 30 days, while ripping packs remains a bad bet with the best EV sitting at just 0.73x for both Destined Rivals and Journey Together.
Collectors are paying up for cards that feel hard to replace, not for opening value. That shows up clearly when cards like Surfing Pikachu, Giovanni's Machamp, and Lance's Dragonite are all up roughly 149% to 150%, while sealed product still can't get close to break-even on expected value.
Top stories
Vintage promos and Gym-era cards are still getting chased.
Surfing Pikachu from WoTC Promos jumped 148.23% to $68.78, and Giovanni's Machamp from Gym Challenge rose 149.97% to $83.56. Those aren't random bumps. They're the kind of moves you get when low available supply meets nostalgia buyers and slab chasers at the same time. The PSA 10 numbers back it up too: Surfing Pikachu averages $1,224.74, and Giovanni's Machamp sits at $1,031.45. Raw buyers are still paying because the slab ceiling is huge.
Japanese Vs cards are acting like a real pocket of strength, not a one-day blip.
Pryce's Lapras climbed 149.03% to $52.06, while Lance's Dragonite gained 148.85% to $185.00. That's a serious move for two cards from the same niche era. This looks like a supply story first, but there's also a collector preference shift here. Buyers are reaching beyond the usual English vintage names and paying for character cards with low visibility and strong PSA 10 upside. Lance's Dragonite at $1,544.31 in PSA 10 keeps that chase alive.
Selective Sun and Moon GX cards are waking up fast.
Raichu & Alolan Raichu GX from Unified Minds surged 149.62% to $143.52, and Nihilego GX from Hidden Fates rose 148.74% to $18.24. That's not broad-based strength across all GX cards, it's targeted. Tag Team cards with recognizable Pokémon are still getting pulled higher by collector demand, while cheaper niche GX cards are moving when supply dries up. The difference in slab premium matters here: Raichu & Alolan Raichu GX PSA 10 averages $526.71, which leaves less room than some vintage names, but enough to keep interest alive.
Sealed product still isn't giving rippers a reason to jump back in.
Destined Rivals and Journey Together both sit at a 0.73x pack EV ratio, or a negative 27% expected margin. Crown Zenith is worse at 0.65x, or negative 35%. That's the same message as yesterday, and the data confirms it. People may be talking more positively about booster boxes, but the math still says sealed is being bought to hold, not to open.
A few sharp losers show how unforgiving this market is when demand fades.
Brock's Grit from Team Up fell 48.76% to $75.68, and Tentacruel Master Ball from Japanese Scarlet & Violet 151 dropped 48.06% to $10.45. That's the other side of a thin market. If a card loses attention, or if too many copies hit at once, prices don't drift lower, they crack. Tentacruel's PSA 10 average is still $101.54, but the raw collapse says buyers aren't in a rush unless the grade is clean.
Today's movers90 day trend
Lampent, Pokemon White Flare, $18.03, up 148.97%.Lampent · Pokemon White FlareNM$18.03PSA 10$309.35+8.8%
This is the kind of move that gets ignored until it doesn't. A raw under $20 card with a PSA 10 average of $309.35 is exactly the sort of low-entry slab target collectors love once supply tightens. If near-mint raws are truly drying up, this one can hold more of the gain than people expect.
Raichu & Alolan Raichu GX, Unified Minds, $143.52, up 149.62%.Raichu & Alolan Raichu GX · Pokemon Unified MindsNM$143.52PSA 10$526.71+7.7%
This is a real card now, not a cheap Tag Team flyer. The issue is that after a run like this, buyers need to be picky. At $143.52 raw versus $526.71 in PSA 10, the upside still exists, but only if condition is strong. I wouldn't chase average copies.
Surfing Pikachu, WoTC Promos, $68.78, up 148.23%.Surfing Pikachu · Pokemon WoTC PromosNM$68.78PSA 10$1224.74+19.0%
Nostalgia is doing heavy lifting here, but the slab premium is what keeps the move from looking silly. PSA 10 at $1,224.74 is massive. This is exactly the sort of promo that gets tucked away in collections and rarely comes back out in top condition.
Brock's Grit, Team Up, $75.68, down 48.76%.Brock's Grit · Pokemon Team UpNM$75.68PSA 10$187.46+18.7%
This looks more like a reset than a bargain. The PSA 10 average is only $187.46, so the raw price had gotten ahead of itself. Unless collector chatter picks back up, I'd leave this alone.
Tentacruel Master Ball, Japanese 151, $10.45, down 48.06%.Tentacruel [Master Ball] · Pokemon Japanese Scarlet & Violet 151NM$10.45PSA 10$101.54+13.5%
Interesting only if you're grading ultra-clean copies. Raw sentiment is weak, but a $101.54 PSA 10 average means there is still a lane here for disciplined buyers who can spot gem candidates.
Grading spotlight90 day trend
Sceptile EX looks underpriced if you can grade selectively.Sceptile EX · Pokemon Ancient OriginsNM$40.00PSA 10$1700.00+7.3%
Raw copies average $40.00, while PSA 10 averages $1,700.00. That's a headline ROI of 799%, even with just a 20.7% gem rate. This is not a bulk submission card, but if you know how to screen centering and surface, the payoff is huge.
Bonus watch, Snorlax.
At $14.90 raw and $420.99 in PSA 10, the ROI is 779%, but the 15.3% gem rate is the catch. Great upside, tougher execution.

Community Pulse

Booster box talk improved, posting a positive sentiment score of 50.0 across two mentions, but I wouldn't overread it. The conversation sounds more like sealed confidence from holders than excitement from rippers, because pack EV is still bad across the board.

On the negative side, Blastoise Staff, Yveltal EX, and Pikachu Reverse Holo each posted a -40.0 sentiment shift, though only on one mention each. That's too light to call a trend, but it does tell you attention is narrow right now. Big money is chasing specific cards, not lifting the whole market together.

Shining Magikarp 600 Fan Club also slipped to -20.0 sentiment on one mention. That's not panic, just a sign that even trophy-level names can cool off when the market's attention moves elsewhere.

Pokemon TCGSeptember 17 2026Surfing PikachuLance's DragoniteUnified MindsHidden Fatesgrading opportunitiesbooster box EV
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