A pack EV calculator answers one question: statistically, are the cards you'd pull from a pack or box worth more than what you paid for it? Double Holo prices every card a set's packs can contain at current market value, weights each price by its real pull rate, and compares that expected value against the pack or box cost, so you can see which sets pay back and which ones don't before you rip a single pack.
Filter by era or search for a specific set to see its pack and box expected value.
Double Holo calculates expected value from live market prices and each rarity's real pull rate, then shows it per pack and per box.
See expected value alongside what a pack or box actually costs, so you know the expected payback before you buy.
Rank sets by pack EV, box EV, or price per pack to see where the best expected value is right now.
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Expected value, or EV, is a simple idea applied carefully: take every card a pack or box can contain, multiply each one's market price by how often it's actually pulled, and add it all up. That total is what a pack or box is statistically worth in cards, which you can then compare against what it costs to buy. Double Holo runs that calculation for every set it tracks, at both the pack and box level, since a box is not just "buy enough packs and average out," it has its own cost and its own guaranteed rarity slots.
Pull rates are what keep the calculation honest. Some cards in a set are common and show up in nearly every pack, others are rare chase cards that most packs will never contain. Weighting each card's price by its real pull rate, rather than treating every possible pull as equally likely, is what separates an actual expected value from a best-case fantasy number.
Because EV is built from live market prices, it moves with the market. A set can look like a good deal one month and a bad one the next as its chase cards rise or fall in price, even though the pack itself still costs the same and the pull rates haven't changed at all. That's also why EV needs to be recalculated regularly rather than published once: a stale EV number is worse than no number, since it can point you toward a set that already stopped paying off.
Most packs are negative EV most of the time, and that's expected, not a flaw in the math. Card manufacturers and retailers price packs to make money on average, so the odds are built to favor the house over any single pack. A positive-EV window tends to open when a set's chase cards appreciate faster than the pack price does, often once a set has been out long enough for scarcity to set in, or when a set is being sold below its usual retail price. The calculator exists to show you when that window is actually open instead of you guessing from vibes or a single card's price. For a set-by-set breakdown, see our guide to the best Pokemon set to open.
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Occasionally, yes, though most packs are negative EV most of the time by design, since manufacturers and retailers price packs to favor themselves on average. A positive-EV window tends to open when a set's chase cards rise in price faster than the pack cost, which is exactly what the calculator is built to catch.
Expected value recalculates daily using current market prices, so the ranking reflects where prices actually are, not a stale snapshot. Pull rate data, which changes far less often than prices, refreshes on its own separate schedule.
It depends on the set's EV. When a set's expected value is close to or above the pack cost, ripping packs can make statistical sense on top of the fun of opening them. When EV is well below cost, buying the specific card you want as a single is almost always the better financial decision, and the calculator shows you which situation you're in for a given set.
Pack EV is the expected value of a single pack's contents versus its price. Box EV is the same calculation for a full box, which usually includes its own pricing and sometimes guaranteed pull slots, so a box's EV is not always just its pack EV multiplied by the pack count. Double Holo calculates both separately.
That changes as market prices move, so there's no fixed answer. The Pack Value tool ranks every set live by pack EV, box EV, and price per pack, so you're always looking at the current ranking instead of a name that might already be out of date.
See expected value per pack and per box for every set Double Holo tracks, calculated from live prices and real pull rates.