Classic old-card behavior. Cheap raw, huge nostalgia set, very little real supply once condition matters. The PSA 10 average of $252.98 tells you exactly why people are digging through binders for this card. This is the kind of card that looks silly until there are none left in nice shape.
The Journal
Spearow Reverse HoloSpearow [Reverse Holo] · Pokemon Fire Red & Leaf GreenNM$10.81PSA 10$669.44+10.0%
Daily Market Brief
Sep 24, 2026No. 1776 min read
Old singles keep running while sealed stays soft
Skyridge and Japanese cards surge again, while modern pack value still looks weak
Today looks a lot like yesterday, and that's the point. Older singles and weird low-pop cards are still getting bought hard, while sealed product sentiment is soft and modern pack value remains underwater outside one clear outlier.
The biggest 30-day gainers all came from thin-supply cards, not broad modern staples. Meanwhile, both Journey Together and Destined Rivals sit at just 0.72x pack EV, which tells you rip value still isn't supporting sealed prices right now.
Top stories
Vintage and niche singles are still the cleanest part of the market
Four quality-filtered gainers jumped about 146% to 150% over the last 30 days: Dachsbun ex from Stellar Crown at $76.10, Mismagius from Paldea Evolved at $38.01, Sunkern from Skyridge at $9.89, and Machoke 1st Edition from Japanese Expedition Expansion Pack at $7.74. That's not random. The market is still rewarding cards with low supply and big PSA 10 upside, even when the raw copy looks cheap on paper.
Sealed product still doesn't have the numbers behind the hype
Social sentiment around Booster Box slipped to 0.0, and Booster Box [Prerelease] dropped to -20.0. That lines up with the EV data. Journey Together and Destined Rivals both show -28% expected pack margin, meaning the average rip still burns value. If sealed boxes keep climbing while pack EV stays this weak, that gap probably gets tested.
30th Celebration is the one set breaking the rule
30th Celebration is sitting at a 2.57x pack EV ratio with a 157% margin. That's a huge outlier compared with the rest of the market. Usually numbers this strong pull more attention fast, especially from rip-first buyers. If those EV figures hold, singles from the set should stay active and sealed could catch a second wave.
Sentiment is improving on a few collector names, but not evenly
Umbreon Prime posted improving sentiment with a 55.0 score across 6 mentions, which matters more than a one-off post. Team Rocket's Moltres ex also improved to 70.0, though that came on just 1 mention, so I wouldn't overread it yet. On the flip side, Gardevoir sentiment fell to -15.0 across 14 mentions. That's enough volume to take seriously, and it suggests buyers are getting pickier on cards that ran too fast or have more supply than people want to admit.
Japanese low-end vintage is still acting better than people expect
Machoke 1st Edition from Japanese Expedition Expansion Pack is up 148.55% to $7.74, while Torchic 1st Edition from Japanese Gaia Volcano fell 49.91% to $6.73. That's a useful split. Buyers are not lifting all older Japanese cards together. They're rewarding scarcer, tougher, or more overlooked cards, and they're punishing anything that got ahead of itself.
Today's movers90 day trend
Gainers
Torchic 1st Edition, Japanese Gaia Volcano, $6.73, down 49.91%Torchic [1st Edition] · Pokemon Japanese Gaia VolcanoNM$6.73PSA 10$333.23+2.3%
Torchic 1st Edition, Japanese Gaia Volcano, $6.73, down 49.91%Torchic [1st Edition] · Pokemon Japanese Gaia VolcanoNM$6.73PSA 10$333.23+2.3%A 50% drop in a month is ugly, but it also tells you the market is still correcting weak spikes fast. Even with a PSA 10 average of $333.23, buyers clearly stopped paying up for raw copies. That usually means either too many copies surfaced or the earlier price was never supported by real demand. I'd wait for this to base before touching it.
Decliners
Dachsbun ex, Stellar Crown, $76.10, up 147.69%Dachsbun ex · Pokemon Stellar CrownNM$76.10PSA 10$202.78-2.5%
Mismagius, Paldea Evolved, $38.01, up 146.31%Mismagius · Pokemon Paldea EvolvedNM$38.01PSA 10$402.08-17.4%
Dachsbun ex, Stellar Crown, $76.10, up 147.69%Dachsbun ex · Pokemon Stellar CrownNM$76.10PSA 10$202.78-2.5%This is the weirdest gainer on the board, and that makes it interesting. A near-150% move in 30 days on a modern-era card usually needs a trigger, but here the bigger story looks like supply pressure plus collector curiosity. With a PSA 10 average of $202.78, the slab premium is real, though not absurd. I wouldn't chase after a vertical move like this, but I also wouldn't call it fake. Thin supply can stay thin longer than people think.
Mismagius, Paldea Evolved, $38.01, up 146.31%Mismagius · Pokemon Paldea EvolvedNM$38.01PSA 10$402.08-17.4%This one has a much louder grading signal. Raw at $38.01 versus $402.08 in PSA 10 is a massive spread. That's the kind of gap that gets graders and spec buyers moving at the same time. If clean raws dry up, this can hold more of the gain than most people expect.
Grading spotlight90 day trend
Raw copies average $20.85, while PSA 10 sits at $763.44. That's a headline 789% ROI, with a 26.0% gem rate. Even after grading fees and misses, the math is strong enough to justify careful raw hunting. The catch is obvious, condition. You need clean surfaces and strong holo quality, or the play falls apart fast.
Spearow Reverse HoloSpearow [Reverse Holo] · Pokemon Fire Red & Leaf GreenNM$10.81PSA 10$669.44+10.0%Raw is just $10.81, and PSA 10 averages $669.44. That's a 783% ROI with an 18.1% gem rate. Lower gem rate means you need to buy even more selectively than with Zubat, but the upside is huge if you know how to screen cards. This is a binder-dig card, not a buy-any-copy card.
Community Pulse
The collector crowd is still talking more about singles than sealed, and sentiment says the same thing. Umbreon Prime is getting warmer, up to a 55.0 sentiment score on 6 mentions, which feels like real collector interest rather than a random spike. Gardevoir is moving the other way, -15.0 across 14 mentions, and that's enough chatter to suggest fatigue.
Sealed discussion looks tired. Mentions tied to booster boxes skewed flat to negative, which fits what buyers are seeing in pack EV. People still like holding sealed, sure, but fewer seem excited to rip at current prices.
Pokemon TCGSeptember 24 2026Skyridge Sunkern30th Celebrationbooster box EVPSA 10 gradingUmbreon PrimeStellar Crown
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