Old singles keep ripping while packs stay weak

Vintage and promo cards lead again, but modern pack value still isn't there

The split market from yesterday is still here, and honestly it's getting harder to ignore. Older singles, oddball promos, and low-pop slab targets are still ripping, while modern pack value remains soft, with Journey Together and Destined Rivals both sitting at just 0.71x pack EV.

That tells you exactly where collector money is going this morning. People want specific chase cards with grading upside, not boxes to rip for value.

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Vintage and promo singles are still the cleanest trade on the board.

Scolipede from Black Bolt climbed 149.11% in 30 days to $27.23, Dragonite GX from SM Promos jumped 148.78% to $90.19, and Will's Slowbro from Japanese Vs rose 149.4% to $39. Those aren't random moves. The common thread is scarcity, nostalgia, and strong PSA 10 ceilings. Dragonite GX at $90.19 raw against a $473.27 PSA 10 average is exactly the kind of spread that keeps buyers engaged even after a big run.

Mega-era cards are getting bought fast.

M Tyranitar EX from Ancient Origins is up 148.29% to $30.41, and M Pidgeot EX from Evolutions gained 148.04% to $14.44. This lines up with the broader pattern we've seen all week, collectors are reaching back into XY and Sun & Moon for cards that still feel underpriced in raw condition. The market is clearly rewarding cards with familiar Pokemon, older set branding, and room to grade up.

Pack economics still look bad for most modern product.

30th Celebration is the outlier, with a 2.36x pack EV ratio and a 136% margin. That's strong enough to keep sealed interest alive. But Journey Together and Destined Rivals are both stuck at 0.71x, or negative 29% margin. So while singles are moving, most modern packs still look like a bad rip. The data confirms the same story as yesterday, sealed only works when the hit rate and chase list are strong enough to justify opening.

Pikachu weakness is real, but it looks card-specific, not a full character selloff.

Pikachu Gold Star from Holon Phantoms fell 49.65% over 30 days to $900, one of the sharpest drops on the board. That's a serious reset. But sentiment on Pikachu Reverse Holo improved to a 60 score, even on light mention volume. So this doesn't read like broad Pikachu fatigue. It looks more like a high-end correction after prices got too far ahead of demand.

Community chatter is rotating toward niche names, not just blue chips.

Sentiment improved for Chandelure and Charizard Prerelease Staff, while Team Rocket's Moltres ex and Mega Lucario Ex both slipped into negative sentiment. Mention counts are low, so I wouldn't overreact, but the tone matters. Collectors are still hunting overlooked cards with story value, while some headline names are losing steam short term.

Today's movers90 day trend

Gainers

Dragonite GX, SM Promos, $90.19, up 148.78%Dragonite GX · Pokemon SM PromosNM$90.19PSA 10$473.27+4.0%

Dragonite keeps proving that popular Pokemon plus promo scarcity is a dangerous combo for anyone waiting on a pullback. At nearly $473 for PSA 10s, the slab market is still doing the heavy lifting here. This one looks expensive raw, but not crazy if gem-quality copies stay scarce.

Decliners

Scolipede, Black Bolt, $27.23, up 149.11% in 30 daysScolipede · Pokemon Black BoltNM$27.23PSA 10$281.68-10.8%

This is the kind of move that usually starts as a sleeper pickup and then gets chased once people notice the PSA 10 average at $281.68. After a run like this, I wouldn't chase copies with bad centering or whitening. But clean raws still make sense if you can inspect them first.

M Tyranitar EX, Ancient Origins, $30.41, up 148.29%M Tyranitar EX · Pokemon Ancient OriginsNM$30.41PSA 10$327.48-1.9%

This looks like one of the healthier climbs in the group. Tyranitar has a deep collector base, Ancient Origins has aged well, and the PSA 10 average at $327.48 leaves room for sharp copies. I'd rather own this than chase weaker modern alts at similar prices.

Pikachu Gold Star, Holon Phantoms, $900, down 49.65%Pikachu [Gold Star] · Pokemon Holon PhantomsNM$900.00PSA 10$5503.45-40.6%

This is the big warning sign today. A near 50% drop in a month means either recent comps were inflated, or buyers finally tapped out at prior levels. Long term, it's still a grail-tier card. Short term, don't assume the first dip is the bottom.

Aipom, Paradox Rift, $29.94, down 49.6%Aipom · Pokemon Paradox RiftNM$29.94PSA 10$219.09-9.7%

Modern spikes with thin conviction tend to unwind fast, and that's what this looks like. Unless there's a fresh catalyst, I'd avoid trying to catch this one.

Grading spotlight90 day trend

SquirtleSquirtle · Pokemon Team Magma & Team AquaNM$36.20PSA 10$900.00-1.4%

Raw copies average $36.20, while PSA 10s average $900. That's a headline ROI of 789%, with a 20.0% gem rate. Those numbers are strong enough to matter, but the gem rate keeps this from being easy money. This is a strict condition play. If the copy isn't clean, pass.

Magcargo Reverse HoloMagcargo [Reverse Holo] · Pokemon Unseen ForcesNM$19.99PSA 10$750.13+29.3%

Raw sits at $19.99 and PSA 10 averages $750.13, good for 783% ROI with a 32.6% gem rate. That's one of the better mixes of upside and hit rate on the board today. Compared with some of the lower gem-rate names, this is the grading target I'd be most willing to buy into right now.

Community Pulse

Social chatter is mixed, but the direction is useful. Sentiment improved for Pikachu Reverse Holo, Chandelure, and Charizard Prerelease Staff, which fits the ongoing hunt for quirky, collectible cards with lower visibility. On the flip side, Team Rocket's Moltres ex and Mega Lucario Ex both saw sentiment slide, suggesting some fatigue around recently watched chase cards.

The bigger mood check is simple, collectors still want singles with a story. They don't want to brick boxes at negative EV.

Pokemon TCGSeptember 29 2026Dragonite GXM Tyranitar EXPikachu Gold Stargrading opportunities30th Celebration

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