Raw is $26.63, PSA 10 average is $815.42, for a stated ROI of 790%. The catch is the 15.6% gem rate, so this is a cherry-pick play only. If you've got clean copies in hand, this still looks undervalued raw.
The Journal
Daily Market Brief
Oct 17, 2026No. 2006 min read
Vintage chases run while new reprints cool hype
Charizard and Rayquaza stay hot, but November product news looks supply-heavy
The split market is still the story this morning. Older grails, especially Charizard, Rayquaza, and clean PSA 10 copies from XY and Sun and Moon, keep ripping higher, while a lot of newer sealed product still looks expensive compared with what you can realistically pull.
That gap showed up again overnight. Premium vintage chatter is bullish, but November release news out of Japan and China leans more toward added supply and collector curiosity than a straight-up price spike across the board.
Top stories
Vintage Charizard and Rayquaza demand keeps pulling money away from weaker modern slabs.
Collector chatter around EX Crystal Guardians Charizard Reverse Holo got loud after reported offers ran as high as $7,500 and an asking price jumped from $3,000 to $10,000. That lines up with broader vintage strength, not just hype. Base Set Unlimited holos are also getting more attention, and Reddit sentiment on Charizard improved. On the Rayquaza side, the anecdotal jump from roughly $400 to a recent sale near $3,100 for a shiny copy matches the hard data better than most social posts do. Rayquaza GX from Celestial Storm is up 125.19% in PSA 10 over 30 days, with 20 sales and a PSA 10 average of $2,198.48.
November's Japanese Special Deck Set looks like a reprint event, not a new chase-card boom.
The newly revealed Mega Dragonite ex, Mega Gengar ex, and Mega Feraligatr ex deck product lands November 13 at 5,500 yen and looks built around alternate art reprints. That's important because sentiment on Mega Dragonite ex is improving, score 67.86 on 7 mentions, but price data on related Mega cards says buyers should be careful. Mega Gengar ex promo PSA 10 is down 41.74% over 30 days to $182.46, and Mega Rayquaza ex from Japanese Storm Emeralda is down 43.27% to $525.42 across a heavy 127 PSA 10 sales. Translation, attention should rise, but supply probably rises faster.
China's November releases are becoming a real niche lane for collectors.
Simplified Chinese Black Bolt and White Flare arrive November 6, along with China-exclusive Special Illustration Rares N's Plan and Hilda, plus Gem Pack Vol. 7 with Illustration Rare Misty's Psyduck. These aren't broad English-market supply events, but they do matter for collectors chasing exclusive art. Expect short-term sealed demand from international buyers and early premiums on the exclusive singles. White Flare sealed still doesn't look attractive as a rip, though, with pack EV at just 0.52x.
A questionable six-figure-plus comp is getting called out, and that's healthy.
The reported $900,000 Cresselia Holo PSA 10 sale is facing serious pushback, with collectors pointing to a last real bid around $15,099 and later bidding activity tied to a zero-feedback account. That's a big deal because Cresselia from Shrouded Fable is already up 124.18% in PSA 10 over 30 days to $201.14. Fake or shaky comps can drag an entire niche out of line fast. Right now, the social story and the actual card data do not match, and collectors are right to treat that headline sale as suspect.
PSA Vault shipping changes could bring a little extra inventory to market before month end.
Collectors now have a deadline before higher vault withdrawal shipping fees kick in on October 29. That probably means some vaulted cards come home early, and a portion of those will hit the market. I don't expect a crash from this, but it can create short-term listing pressure in higher-value slabs, especially for owners already thinking about trimming into strength.
Grading spotlight90 day trend
Raw is just $6.78, PSA 10 average is $331.25, ROI 788%, with a much friendlier 38.6% gem rate. That's the better risk-adjusted grading target today. Cheap entry, strong slab premium, and enough gem rate to make bulk hunting worthwhile.
Community Pulse
Reddit is heavily tilted toward vintage again, and the tone is mostly bullish. Charizard, Gold Stars, Crystal cards, and older Rayquaza copies are getting the kind of attention that usually brings more buyers than sellers.
There is also a growing skepticism streak, which is a good sign. Collectors are pushing back on questionable auction comps and calling out weird bidding behavior instead of blindly repeating headline prices. On sealed, the mood is more mixed. Booster box sentiment improved, but posts about weak pull results and slower preorder sellouts in Europe show that buyers still know sealed math is ugly right now.
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