Updated October 20, 2026
Completed sales, not asking prices · The recency-weighted average · Graded prices never blend · When there is not enough data · FAQ · See it applied to your card
The graded market price shown on a card's own price page, in the value checker, and on graded scans in the mobile card scanner is built from completed sales using one methodology. Raw near-mint prices are a different thing: a daily market price synced from an outside marketplace. A few surfaces deliberately work differently, such as the latest-sale number in the partner data feed and the raw-condition estimates the scanner gives for cards that have not been graded. This guide lays out the graded method and the raw near-mint source in one place, so you can see how a number gets to the screen. For the full step-by-step reference, see the full pricing methodology.
Double Holo prices a graded Pokemon card from a recency-weighted average of up to five of its most recent trusted sales from the past year in that exact grade, with outliers set aside.
Prices come from Double Holo market data, refreshed daily.
Completed Sales, Not Asking Prices
The starting principle is simple: every price is built from sales that actually happened, not from what a seller is hoping to get. An asking price is a number anyone can set at any level, and plenty of listings sit unsold at optimistic prices for a long time. A completed sale is the amount a buyer actually agreed to pay, which is a far more honest signal of what a card is really worth right now.
| Price type | How it is built |
|---|---|
| Graded (company + grade) | Recency-weighted average of up to 5 recent trusted sales in that exact grade, outliers set aside |
| Raw near-mint | Its own daily sync of an outside marketplace's market price for near-mint copies, which is built from that marketplace's completed sales |
| Estimate (labeled "est.") | A daily market snapshot, or a single trusted sale as a last resort, used when fewer than 2 trusted sales exist for that grade |
The Recency-Weighted Average
For a graded card in a specific company and grade, Double Holo takes up to its five most recent trusted sales from the past year. Any sale that sits more than a quarter off the group's middle price gets set aside first, so one stray sale cannot skew the number on its own. The remaining sales are then averaged with a recency weight, so a sale from last week counts for more than a sale from eight months ago. The result tracks what a card is actually trading for right now, rather than an average that is slow to reflect a shift in demand.
A few rules make the number reproducible. The recency weight halves roughly every ten days, so a sale from ten days ago counts about half as much as one from today. Outlier trimming runs when there are at least four sales, and its result is kept if at least three sales survive it. With fewer sales than that, every sale stays in, because a handful of points is not enough to call any one of them an outlier. Real sales get some protection too. The newest sale is normally set aside only when it is extreme, at least five times or at most a fifth of the group's middle price. On vintage cards (Sun & Moon era and older) only unusually low sales are set aside, so a genuine high sale on an older card counts.
One more rule guards against a single odd sale taking over a price. If fewer than three sales sit within a quarter of the recency-weighted middle, and that middle is five times (or a fifth of) the plain middle of the same sales, the check is run around the plain middle instead. In that case the newest sale gets no special protection, so one fresh sale far from all the others does not set the price by itself.
Graded Prices Never Blend
A graded price is always tied to one specific grading company and one specific grade, never blended across either. A PSA 9 and a PSA 10 of the same card are priced completely separately, since a PSA 10 can be worth several times a PSA 9 of the identical card. The same separation holds across companies: a PSA 10 is never averaged together with a CGC 10, even though both carry the same numeric grade, because the two can trade at different prices depending on each company's resale reputation for that card.
Raw near-mint prices are not part of the graded method. They come from a daily sync of an outside marketplace's market price for near-mint copies, which is itself based on that marketplace's completed sales. A raw card and a graded slab of the same character are different products with different buyers, so the two are never mixed.
When There Is Not Enough Data
Not every card has five recent sales to average, especially a slower-moving card in a thin grade. When a graded card has fewer than two trusted sales to lean on, Double Holo falls back to a daily market snapshot and labels that number as an estimate rather than presenting it as sale-backed. If there is exactly one trusted sale and no snapshot, that single sale is used as a last resort, and it is still labeled an estimate. Only when there is no sale and no snapshot is no price shown, instead of guessing at one. A card showing an estimate keeps it until it has at least two trusted sales in that grade. New sales are brought in with the daily refresh, so the number moves to a sale-backed price at that refresh once enough trusted sales exist.
How does Double Holo price Pokemon cards?
Prices are built from completed sales, not asking prices. For a graded card, Double Holo takes up to its five most recent trusted sales in that exact grade from the past year, sets aside any that sit more than a quarter off the group's middle price (the newest sale, and on vintage cards any high sale, is protected from that), and averages the rest with newer sales weighted more heavily. Raw near-mint prices come from their own daily sync of a market price built from completed sales on an outside marketplace, and the whole catalog refreshes every day.
Why is a card priced differently on Double Holo than on an online listing?
A listing is an asking price, a number anyone can set at any level, hoping a buyer agrees. Double Holo prices come from completed sales instead, the actual amount a buyer paid, which is why the two numbers can differ, sometimes by a lot, especially on a card with ambitious asking prices sitting unsold.
Does Double Holo blend grades or grading companies together in one price?
No. A graded price is always tied to one specific grading company and one specific grade, for example a PSA 10 priced only from PSA 10 sales. A PSA 9 and a PSA 10 of the same card are priced separately, and a PSA 10 is never blended with a CGC 10, since the two can trade differently even at the same numeric grade.
What happens when a card doesn't have enough sales to price confidently?
When a graded card has fewer than two trusted sales to lean on, Double Holo falls back to a daily market snapshot and labels that number as an estimate rather than presenting it as a sale-backed price. If there is exactly one trusted sale and no snapshot, that single sale is used as a last resort and is still labeled an estimate. Only when there is no sale and no snapshot is no price shown, rather than guessing at one.
How often do Pokemon card prices update on Double Holo?
The whole catalog refreshes every day. Raw near-mint prices come from their own daily sync, and graded prices recompute from the latest trusted sales as part of that daily refresh, so a card that trades often sees its price move with real activity rather than sitting on a stale number.
What does the "est." label next to a price mean?
It marks a price used when a card has fewer than two trusted sales in that exact grade: a daily market snapshot, or a single trusted sale. It is Double Holo being explicit about which numbers are backed by several real sales and which are an estimate standing in for thin data.
This methodology is live behind the prices on the site. Search any card on Double Holo's free value checker, or point the mobile card scanner at a graded slab to see its recency-weighted price, or at a raw card to see that card's raw market price, in seconds.
Pokemon Card Value Checker - free market pricing built on this methodology.
Pokemon Card Scanner - scan a raw card or graded slab to see its price instantly.
Pokemon Card Market Statistics - dated, citable catalog-wide stats computed the same way, including the PSA 10 premium over raw.
How to Tell if a Pokemon Card is Valuable - the checklist to run before you look up a price.